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Lao People’s Democratic Republic: Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation--Debt Sustainability Analysis

This Debt Sustainability Analysis continues to classify the risk of debt distress as moderate, but Lao P.D.R. is on the verge of a transition to high risk, with heightened vulnerabilities for public debt. The indicative debt distress thresholds remain unchanged from the 2013 Article IV DSA. Under the baseline scenario of the current DSA, some of the external and public debt distress indicators breach the policy-dependent indicative thresholds for some years, the PV of external debt follows a downward trend and returns to levels below the respective thresholds in the medium term. Given the traditional approach classifies the debt distress risk as borderline high/moderate, a probability approach is adopted. The results of the probability approach suggest moderate debt distress risks, since all the indicators remain under their corresponding thresholds, with the exception of debt-to-GDP ratio, which breaches the threshold for a brief period.

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Additional Info

Field Value
Document type Reports, journal articles, and research papers (including theses and dissertations)
Language of document
  • English
  • Banking and financial services policy and regulation
  • Economy and commerce
Geographic area (spatial range)
  • Lao People's Democratic Republic
Copyright Yes
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Version / Edition 1
License unspecified

International Monetary Fund International Development Association

Co-author (coorporate) International Monetary Fund, International Development Association
Publisher International Monetary Fund
Publication date 2014
Pagination 36
Keywords economic development,debt sustainability analysis
Date uploaded August 3, 2017, 19:53 (UTC)
Date modified December 27, 2017, 23:05 (UTC)